TLDR or Too Long Can't be Arsed to read......AZ basically say the original vaccine will remain effective to a certain degree but it's effectiveness will wain over time.
At the bottom it translates to "it is not possible to determine if or when a booster will be needed".
https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/covid-19/waning-immunity.html
How do vaccines produce immunity?
Vaccines offer both short and long-term protection or ‘immunity’ against infectious diseases.
In the days and weeks following vaccination, there is an initial surge in immune cells and antibodies that act as the ‘frontline fighters’ against a foreign invader in the body, such as a virus.1 Over time, these ‘frontline fighters’ naturally fade or wane, but they don’t reduce to zero.1 This is normal, expected and happens with all vaccines.1
Following this initial response, the immune system is still primed to ‘protect’, with longer-lasting ‘memory’ B and T-cells remaining in the body – ready to produce antibodies and defend against the disease if it’s later encountered.1,2
How is ‘lasting immunity’ measured?
Different studies are used to measure how well a vaccine works, and the duration of protection they provide.3 For example:
- Efficacy studies look at a vaccine’s ability to prevent disease (e.g. infections, hospitalisations or deaths) in a controlled research setting.
- Effectiveness studies look at how well a vaccine performs in the ‘real-world’, often in much larger, more diverse populations and geographies.
- Immunogenicity studies are a more complex measure, looking at the specific immune response a vaccine triggers and how long it lasts.4 Scientists study antibodies and T-cells for example, looking at how they interact in the body and the levels that might protect from illness.5,6,7
Immunogenicity studies can also measure whether there’s a decline in antibodies over time, or ‘waning immunity’. The exact duration of immunity varies with different diseases and different vaccines.8 Importantly, a drop in antibodies following vaccination doesn’t necessarily mean a greater risk of serious illness, thanks to the body’s ‘memory’ B and T-cells.
Why do some vaccinated people still get infected?
Following vaccination, some people may experience ‘breakthrough infection’ – where they still get the virus or illness despite being fully vaccinated. This is more likely if high levels of viruses are circulating in a population, or if certain viral variants are particularly contagious.9,10 No vaccine is 100% effective so some breakthrough infections are expected. Importantly, they don’t mean the vaccine isn’t working. The role of many vaccines is to prevent serious illness and death, not infection altogether.11 If breakthrough infections do occur in vaccinated people, the symptoms are usually less severe and may result in fewer hospitalisations and deaths than infections in those who are unvaccinated.10,12
What ‘level’ of immune response is needed to fight future infection?
Using knowledge and evidence gained from immunogenicity studies, scientists can establish the levels and mix of antibodies and T-cells a vaccine needs to trigger to prevent serious
illness and death, not infection altogether.11 If breakthrough infections do occur in vaccinated people, the symptoms are usually less severe and may result in fewer hospitalisations and deaths than infections in those who are unvaccinated.10,12
What ‘level’ of immune response is needed to fight future infection?
Using knowledge and evidence gained from immunogenicity studies, scientists can establish the levels and mix of antibodies and T-cells a vaccine needs to trigger to prevent serious illness. These are called the ‘correlates of protection’.
In addition to what is already known from efficacy trials and real-world evidence, defining the ‘correlates of protection’ can help to determine:13
- how well a vaccine is working (at a biological level)
- if there are certain individuals who are more susceptible to an illness or virus and whether additional protective measures are needed
- if there’s a need for additional vaccine doses or ‘boosters’
- the overall immunity of a population, which can help guide public health decisions.
Are booster vaccines necessary?
For many infectious diseases, additional doses or ‘boosters’ are a standard part of the vaccination schedule. For example, booster vaccines are given for tetanus, diphtheria and polio.14 Boosters can help to elevate the level of antibodies and memory immune cells, and in some instances, strengthen their potency.1
Regulatory authorities examine data from clinical trials as well as real-world evidence to evaluate the level of immunity achieved following vaccination, and the benefits that boosters could provide for longer-term protection against infectious diseases, such as viruses and their variants.