Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

[oldhippydude]

That’s not how ‘average’ works.

Half the population carries less risk. Half carries more, if we’re using mean values.

In addition, this is an extra risk factor loaded into the others. Therefore, it should be taken seriously by anybody carrying increased risk.

It took me to the edge and I’m quite fit for a fat bloke. I don’t think it’s beneficial to be blasé about this.

Those are the words of the BBC.

The sentence in whole is "And that is the average risk - for most individuals the risk is actually lower than that as most of the risk is held by those who are in poor health in each age group."

Think about it.. You will work it out. it is about the difference between average risk and individual risk.
i can help you when i get back from work if you are still having problems.

 

[bergkamp]

So a forty year old has a 1 in 1000 risk of dying anyway before covid ( which to me is scary enough in itself)
And now if you are adding another new 1 in 1000 chance because of covid so your odds are now 2 in 1000 or 1 in 500 , that's not great.

As said it's not so much the risk of dying of it myself ( I think I've had it) but the risk of passing it on to my 83 year old dad, its definitely something to be scared of

 

[Blueys]

1 in a thousand + 1 in a thousand is still 1 in a thousand not as simple as 1+1+2

 

[crustyfolker]

each person is an individual so it actually depends on a persons mindset. What concerns me about the Covid virus is by opening up everything, however gradual it is still risking lives. Lockdown should have remained in place till no new cases where reported. But Money comes first, worst invention ever was money.

 

[oldhippydude]

1 in a thousand + 1 in a thousand is still 1 in a thousand not as simple as 1+1+2

You are wrong and not just the 1+1+2 typo

If you have a 1/1000 chance of dying from non covid causes this year and you have a 1/1000 chance of dying from covid this year
Then you have a 2/1000 chance of dying this year.

If I am wrong you will have to explain it to me.

If we play Russian roulette with a dice and I shoot you if you throw a six and stab you if you throw a one.
Each negative outcome has a 1/6 chance. The chance of a negative outcome is 2/6 for each throw of the dice

It is as simple as 1+1=2

 

[Blueys]

The 1 in a thousand risk of dieing covers a multitude of things adding one more doesn't double your chances
Its more like 1 in 999

 

[Crewella]

That’s not how ‘average’ works.

Half the population carries less risk. Half carries more, if we’re using mean values.

In addition, this is an extra risk factor loaded into the others. Therefore, it should be taken seriously by anybody carrying increased risk.

It took me to the edge and I’m quite fit for a fat bloke. I don’t think it’s beneficial to be blasé about this.

No it's not, but I don't think assessing the risks and taking your chances is necessarily being blase about it? I chose to take chances and ride mad horses, you choose to ride a motorcycle. We're both well aware of the risks but (I'm assuming) feel the benefits outweigh them and try to do it in as safe a way as possible?

 

[crustyfolker]

Lets just say it as it is. Everyone has a chance of dying from Covid it doesn't matter about 1 in howmany as there is no way they can work out the correct figures as there are so many possibilities to factor in.

 

[harumph]

The 1 in a thousand risk of dieing covers a multitude of things adding one more doesn't double your chances
Its more like 1 in 999

you're not getting this. it's 1 in 1000 of dying of everything previous to covid, covid has now added an equal chance of dying from it added on top. it's 2/1000. it's simple maths. It doesn't matter what you perceive to be the case, maths doesn't care about your feelings. it's like saying a nuclear barrage is headed for the uk and it's only one more thing to kill you so it's just 1/999 chance of dying. it's just W R O N G.

 

[Blueys]

This 1 in a thousand is made up of lot of other things that have their own odds
Some of them are 1 in 50 some 1 in 500 some 1 in 1000 some 1 in 500000
Throwing in 1 more 1 in a thousand doesn't double your overall chances