New Covid strain spreading across the UK that's less likely to cause symptoms

[MHL]

Mutant stains can fuck off.

 

[Mitz]

8.34 self extinction



15.32 SARS ends abruptly in 2003

That's very interesting about Japan.

No expert me, but don't really see a crossover with Sars 1. My understanding (possibly flawed, granted) is that it was contained. It was very regional and never truly global. It was acted on quickly and it didn't have Sars 2 transmissibility right from the start. Difference between genuine crossover and lab manipulation? Dunno, but Sars 1 and Sars 2 are clearly different beasts. Mers hasn't become a global problem. Ebola outbreaks are contained. Me thinks a lot comes down to the actual virus itself and the initial response to it?

8k total Sars1 cases?

But I could be talking out of my arse. Wouldn't be the first time.

 

[Mitz]

i think this is it. i’m not sure if there is any reason to think that “more deadly” would contribute to “survivable”. is this not how historic pandemics have eventually passed, by mutations that coincidentally increase transmissibility while causing less serious symptoms?

Spanish flu infected 1/3rd of the population and killed up to 100m people. Don't think it ended because it became more harmless. Didn't it end because it killed so many people and people either dealt with it or died?

 

[zouzounaki]

Spanish flu infected 1/3rd of the population and killed up to 100m people. Don't think it ended because it became more harmless. Didn't it end because it killed so many people and people either dealt with it or died?

i’m not sure that would lead to it’s end. or do you mean that it was so widespread everybody developed immunity?

 

[Mitz]

i’m not sure that would lead to it’s end. or do you mean that it was so widespread everybody developed immunity?

It infected in multiple waves at a time very different to now. I don't know if a version of that particular strain still exists today but yes, I would certainly *imagine* that the pandemic's end came about by the number of dead, the immunity created amongst the undead, and limited ability to continue finding new hosts in a very differently oriented world compared to today?

Or am I thinking crazy?

 

[zouzounaki]

It infected in multiple waves at a time very different to now. I don't know if a version of that particular strain still exists today but yes, I would certainly *imagine* that the pandemic's end came about by the number of dead, the immunity created amongst the undead, and limited ability to continue finding new hosts in a very differently oriented world compared to today?

Or am I thinking crazy?

it’s interesting, this article seems to be saying what you think happened, but that instead of dying out, it’s mutated and still about in less deadly forms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/09/01/1918-flu-pandemic-end/

 

[Mitz]

it’s interesting, this article seems to be saying what you think happened, but that instead of dying out, it’s mutated and still about in less deadly forms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/09/01/1918-flu-pandemic-end/

Very interesting.

"Experts say there’s this natural progression where a virus often — but not always — becomes less lethal as time wears on. It’s in the best interest of the virus for it to spread before killing the host."

So there's definitely more going on that just random mutations - evolutionary drive and pressure?

Random mutations alone wouldn't care about a virus' best interests?

Is the error process itself part of virus' evolutionary development?

 

[zouzounaki]

would random mutations towards deadliness get to a point where another less deadly mutation would become dominant, though? just through statistical reasons? i would think deadlier mutations would have less time to spread, because they kill a lot of their hosts. i’m not sure, it’s not that easy to get your head round it.

 

[Mitz]

would random mutations towards deadliness get to a point where another less deadly mutation would become dominant, though? just through statistical reasons? i would think deadlier mutations would have less time to spread, because they kill a lot of their hosts. i’m not sure, it’s not that easy to get your head round it.

Yeah, probably. Haven't googled Japan yet but if the Delta variant has messed itself up over there then it'll just be surpassed by another strain that becomes dominant surely?

Glad I'm not a virologist.

 

[andipandi]

would random mutations towards deadliness get to a point where another less deadly mutation would become dominant, though?

Yes, if it (the less deadly strain) can transmit faster than a deadly mutation?