Fuctifino
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- Nov 26, 2018
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The mortality rate has always been estimated at 1-2%. The mortality rate is the percentage of people with confirmed cases of Covid that die. The only reason it was at 10-15% earlier in the year is that the only people who could get tests were in hospitals - so those who were the most unwell. Most of those with mild cases weren’t able to get a test at the time.
That may be true as the effective test kits were in short supply - I'll agree
but this applies to other countries to like France at the same time when tests were in short supply
At first initial outbreak the deaths were rising fast as the most at risk were effected & death sky rocketed
However - the point being if 2% mortality - well even less and the number of deaths are so much lower atm
The question points to just how many "could" have been infected - even accutely
and thus built up some resistance (short term), which would perhaps point to the fact the mortality atm is so low
BUT the UK has a testing capacity of around 250,000 per day they say...
yet all the stats are a bit squiffy at times
Yesterday there was 4,368 positive cases out of a total of 22,171,979 tests
day before there was 3,899 positive cases out of a total of 21,368,297 tests
So are we to believe that 4,368 positive test results are returned from 803,682 tests ???
(22,171,979-21,368,297) over the 24hrs ???
That is like 0.5% or half a percent positive RESULTS on total tests ???
803,682 x 0.005 = 4,018 say
(and 2% mortality on that test figure is just too low to even bother to calculate)
but UK only seems to have a capacity to test 250k, unless the figures are for the whole weekend test total
Another thing that is bugging me, that France's test figure has remained at EXACTLY 10,000,000 all last week ???
So they conduct these tests, publish like 2 days of 13k positives from zero tests according to the total test figure data
Yeah OK France
& Spain/Sweden is just slinging out any number or no numbers per day, then adjusting it all as they go
So with the test numbers rising, the death total is still quite low
and even if UK does hit 50,000 per DAY then the mortality would be 2% = 1,000 per DAY
*** EDIT MY BAD GOT MIXED UP WITH 50k weekly
IT IS 50,000 per DAY CASES
SO A WEEK LATER 100k cases per DAY
SO A WEEK LATER 200k cases per DAY
(That is 1k deaths per day, then 2k per day, then 4k deaths per day if it continue to double each week)
end of edit ***
(My brain fucking hurts with all these figures)
AND that is IF we get anywhere near 50k cases in mid October
& by accounts 100k next week, 200k the week after
Point being these figures can only be taken with a pinch of salt
but decisions are being made based upon these pinches of salt
estimates or possible "could be" scenarios are being presented
where the data - what is available, is wide open to interpretation
and still then nobody - including me fucking knows,
but I do question if the data is anywhere near accurate,
so how can we trust anybody except our own gut instinct ???
Way way TLDR
POINT BEING, even Sky News last night who love a bit of sensationalism, was being a little sceptical about the figures...
50,000 cases PER DAY, not per week
is 1,000 deaths per day - ultra lockdown
And by the calculations of doubling each week...
2,000 deaths per DAY a week later
4,000 deaths per DAY another week later
Well it is just bollox in my opinion and I think Sky was even thinking that last night too
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