Should restrictions be lifted on the 19th?

[ZT]

the covid deniers had an anti lockdown protest yesterday. i am guessing that they didn’t hear the announcement cause boycott msm.

Im pleased im not the only one who found this utterly bizarre

 

[Jd_]

I dunno...on one hand, f the anti vaxxers...on the other hand, they r creating a danger to those who cant get vaxxed 4 various reasons

(If my friends 1 year old daughter lands in the hospital i will not be happy)


Her mom is 6 mo preggies as well..Get jabbed ya morons who havent

 

[Crispycritters]

Given, that covid numbers will never be zero seeing as though it's never going away.

Should the country have opened up?

2.5% of daily tests are positive, yes only 2.5% as the UK tests themselves on average 1.1 million times a day.

However

The number of weekly positive cases that require even a trip into hospital with covid according to the figures now is LESS THAN 2%, 1.x%. That is on the basis that hospital cases refresh weekly, anything longer and that drops even lower to close to 1%.

From that 1.x% , only 10% of that figure requires icu or more serious care.

Everyone enjoys to fear monger still , especially as 'freedom day' has come. But these figures suggest the country is in complete control of covid now with these 1.x% potentially dropping by 60% itself in the next 8 weeks as more vaccinations take place (60 is the unvaccinated amount in hospital).

So if you don't want the country opened up , how low do you want the figure to be , given it will never be 0?

There may be 1.1 million tests a day but I wonder how many of these tests are taken by essential personnel like emergency services that have to be tested frequently as they are likely to be in constant contact with the public, there will also be those who are at high risk for health reasons and the usual hypochondriacs who live in a permanent state of believing they are at death's door and in normal circumstances spend half their lives in the GPs office.

Despite almost 2% of England's population being tested daily I don't actually know anyone that has been tested, according to the statistics everyone I know should have been tested 8 or 9 times. Some people are being tested frequently, but just as many won't bother.

Bear in mind that the figures you quote have been a direct result of restrictions being in place for an extended period of time, a chrystal ball will be required to predict our figures in mid August, we simply don't know what the end result will be.

My answer is banana.

 

[Enoch]

There may be 1.1 million tests a day but I wonder how many of these tests are taken by essential personnel like emergency services that have to be tested frequently as they are likely to be in constant contact with the public, there will also be those who are at high risk for health reasons and the usual hypochondriacs who live in a permanent state of believing they are at death's door and in normal circumstances spend half their lives in the GPs office.

Despite almost 2% of England's population being tested daily I don't actually know anyone that has been tested, according to the statistics everyone I know should have been tested 8 or 9 times. Some people are being tested frequently, but just as many won't bother.

Bear in mind that the figures you quote have been a direct result of restrictions being in place for an extended period of time, a chrystal ball will be required to predict our figures in mid August, we simply don't know what the end result will be.

My answer is banana.

These figures are from last week, when restrictions are almost gone at that point and cases are as high as ever for context.

The deeper you dive the lower the number gets. For example the percent of hospital cases that have had some sort of vaccine is only 0.6% of the total number of people testing positive each week.

Like I've said, how low do you want that number to be? Generally, not specifically you. Not even 1% doesn't suggest reasons to have restrictions , that's literally your best case scenario.

 

[Crispycritters]

But the thread is about should the restrictions be lifted on the 19th (now yesterday).

I was just stating the obvious that your figures were from a point in time when some restrictions were in place so they'll change and we simply can't predict the future because we don't have the benefit of hindsight.

I'm not arguing for, or against what happened yesterday because I simply don't know, just like everyone else. But last weeks statistics are meaningless because we are no longer in last week and things have changed.

 

[Leni]

For example the percent of hospital cases that have had some sort of vaccine is only 0.6% of the total number of people testing positive each week.

Where are you getting these figures from? What does the above even mean? That statement makes no sense, you seem to be talking out of your arse, to be honest

 

[Mitz]

Where are you getting these figures from? What does the above even mean? That statement makes no sense, you seem to be talking out of your arse, to be honest

Vallance posted: "Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July.

"About 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are not from double-vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are currently from unvaccinated people."

That leaves 40% of covid hospitalisations being fully vaccinated people. That may be a very small percentage of all positive cases but I don't really get that point either tbh.

See fatalities have jumped from sub 20 to just under 100.

 

[Enoch]

Where are you getting these figures from? What does the above even mean? That statement makes no sense, you seem to be talking out of your arse, to be honest

Ahh the age of having to prove everything!

Average of 280,000 positive cases a week.

Currently 3813 patients in hospital with covid.

(on the basis you refresh the hospital patients weekly, otherwise the number decreases further, but for benefit of the doubt)

So here comes the numbers

If you have 280k cases and 3813 patients in hospital, that gives you a grand total of....... 1.36% of positive patients per week end up in hospital. But like I said , if some of those patients are in hospital for longer than a week, that percentage goes down because the hospital number isn't increasing at anywhere near the same rate.

But as said yesterday , 60% of the hospital cases are unvaccinated, meaning....

60% of 3813 is ........ 2287 are unvaccinated.

Which then means (based on the hospital rate) only 0.5% of positive cases per week have had some sort of vaccine, meaning that currently only 0.5% of positive cases who have had the jab are in hospital.

From that further , 183 deaths last week in total. Meaning mortality of covid is now (based on average positive tests) 0.06%.

TLDR:

1. Only 2.5% of daily testing is positive
2. Only 1.36% of weekly positive cases end up in hospital
3. Only 0.5% of positive patients with a vaccine end up in hospital.
4. Mortality rate is currently 0.06%


Given none of those figures will ever be 0 , how low do people want it to be?

 

[Leni]

Vallance posted: "Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July.

"About 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are not from double-vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from COVID are currently from unvaccinated people."

That leaves 40% of covid hospitalisations being fully vaccinated people. That may be a very small percentage of all positive cases but I don't really get that point either tbh.

See fatalities have jumped from sub 20 to just under 100.

Yes, that makes sense. But @Sacred Vape seems to be plucking numbers from some unknown source, throwing them around out of any context, and arguing with no one in particular.

You don’t need to prove anything to me fella - if I want numbers I can look them up for myself, thanks. But if you’re going to try and make a point, at least make it a coherent one ffs

 

[Simon G]

That leaves 40% of covid hospitalisations being fully vaccinated people.

No it doesn't quite mean that... as @Crewella said, the 40% is made up of fully vaccinated, people who have only had a single vaccination and people who have only just had their vaccination.

Plus as we said earlier the majority of hospitalized are elderly, or folks with other complications, which unfortunately means even with 2 vaccines they are still a lot more vulnerable that everyone else, especially the young and healthy even without being vaccinated.