The concerns about youth vaping are based on a naive model of youth risk behaviours and ignore the counterfactual in which some young people who vape would otherwise be smoking. Even among those who would not otherwise have smoked, relatively minor harms arise from vaping among youth – and their use is likely to be experimental, infrequent and transient, and vaping just isn’t that dangerous. Few, if any, will die as a result of their nicotine use, even if it persists for decades, which most will not. In contrast, relatively significant harms are avoided by youth diverted from smoking by vaping. No allowance is made for this latter pathway, which has much greater public health significance.